Texas Democratic politician Jasmine Crockett faces mounting challenges following the recent Supreme Court ruling that upheld the state’s revised congressional maps, setting the stage for the 2026 elections. This decision has prompted shifts in strategy for several candidates and added a new layer of complexity to the state’s political landscape.
Initially, Crockett had been preparing to run for a nearby House seat. However, with redistricting reshaping the map, she pivoted toward a campaign for the U.S. Senate, seeking to bring her progressive platform to a statewide audience. Yet recent polling suggests that her path to victory may face significant hurdles.
A recent survey conducted by Emerson College Polling in partnership with Nexstar Media shows State Representative James Talarico leading Crockett in the Democratic Senate primary. Among likely Democratic primary voters, Talarico enjoys 47 percent support, while Crockett garners 38 percent. The remaining 15 percent of voters remain undecided, leaving the primary outcome uncertain less than two months before the March vote.
Talarico’s campaign has emphasized his broad appeal, capturing support across different demographics. Nearly 60 percent of both white and Hispanic Democratic voters favor him, while Crockett maintains a strong base among Black voters, commanding support from roughly 80 percent of that demographic. Gender differences are also evident: men lean toward Talarico by a 22-point margin, while women appear evenly split between the two candidates.
Talarico, a former educator and state legislator, gained national attention in 2024 when he, alongside other Texas Democrats, left the state in a bid to block a Republican-backed redistricting bill. His campaign platform focuses on education reform, affordable housing, and empowering local control over school districts—issues that resonate with voters seeking pragmatic leadership in the state’s Democratic Party.
Crockett, a first-term congresswoman known for her outspoken style in Washington, made waves with a late December entry into the Senate race. Her candidacy prompted former Representative Colin Allred, the Democratic nominee in 2024, to redirect his efforts toward the House rather than pursuing another Senate bid. Crockett’s approach appeals strongly to the progressive base, contrasting with Talarico’s emphasis on bridging divides and building consensus.
Analysts note that this Democratic primary is shaping up as a contest not only of policy but also of temperament and political style. Talarico is positioning himself as a pragmatic, collaborative candidate who can unite the party and appeal to a broader electorate. Crockett’s strategy leans into her reputation as a vocal advocate for social justice and progressive reforms, energizing activists and younger voters who prioritize bold, unapologetic leadership.
Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the primary is highly competitive as well. Incumbent Senator John Cornyn faces stiff competition from Attorney General Ken Paxton, who leads Cornyn by a narrow margin in recent surveys among likely Republican primary voters, 27 percent to 26 percent. Representative Wesley Hunt trails at 16 percent, with nearly one-third of GOP voters remaining undecided. Emerson Polling Director Spencer Kimball noted that a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton appears increasingly likely in May, given the divided electorate.
Despite a polarized political environment, general election matchups suggest a competitive landscape. Paxton is tied with both Talarico and Crockett at 46 percent support each, while Cornyn leads Talarico 47 to 44 percent and Crockett 48 to 43 percent. These results highlight the ongoing challenge for Democrats to overcome the deep Republican lean in Texas, even as shifting demographics and urban growth present opportunities for change.
The Supreme Court ruling that upheld the new congressional maps has proven to be a significant factor in the campaign. Crockett expressed frustration over the decision, emphasizing that the ruling could hinder representation for minority communities. “While the Supreme Court’s decision is disappointing, it’s not entirely unexpected,” Crockett said. “Federal judges in Texas previously determined that these maps weaken the voices of Black, Latino, and other minority voters. The Supreme Court’s ruling does not reverse those findings; it merely allows the maps to be used temporarily for the 2026 election cycle.”
She continued, stressing that the ruling should not be interpreted as a validation of the maps’ fairness. “The lower court found these maps to be discriminatory,” Crockett explained. “The Supreme Court has simply allowed them to remain in effect for now. This is not a conclusion about fairness or constitutionality. Texans should remain vigilant and aware of how these maps affect representation.”
In contrast, Talarico appears to have gained momentum in the Democratic primary. His campaign emphasizes practical solutions to pressing issues, from improving public education to addressing rising living costs. He frames himself as a candidate capable of uniting diverse communities under a vision of opportunity and equity. Supporters praise his ability to engage with constituents across racial, socioeconomic, and geographic lines, highlighting his reputation as a bridge-builder in an often polarized political environment.
Fundraising also plays a significant role in shaping the primary contest. Since launching his Senate campaign in September, Talarico has raised over $13 million, demonstrating his capacity to sustain a competitive statewide effort. Crockett’s fundraising, while respectable, has yet to match Talarico’s pace, raising questions about the viability of her campaign as the primary approaches.
Political analysts emphasize that voter turnout and engagement will be critical in determining the outcome. With nearly 15 percent of likely Democratic primary voters still undecided, the final weeks of campaigning could have a decisive impact. Candidates are focusing on outreach efforts, including town halls, digital campaigns, and targeted voter engagement initiatives, to mobilize supporters and clarify their platforms.
For Democrats, the race also represents a broader debate about the party’s future in Texas. Crockett’s progressive approach energizes activists and younger voters, signaling a desire for transformative policies and a more confrontational style of leadership. Talarico’s campaign, emphasizing pragmatism and collaboration, appeals to voters who seek steady, results-oriented governance that can build coalitions and achieve legislative victories even in a divided state.
National observers note that the outcome of the Democratic primary could influence campaign strategies for the general election. Texas remains a challenging environment for Democrats, with entrenched Republican support and a history of competitive but narrowly contested races. Nonetheless, the combination of urban growth, demographic shifts, and voter enthusiasm presents opportunities for well-organized and strategically focused campaigns.
Crockett’s messaging highlights concerns about equity and justice, particularly for minority voters who may feel disenfranchised by the new congressional maps. Her statements underscore the importance of vigilance and advocacy in the face of institutional decisions that impact political representation. Meanwhile, Talarico’s focus on policy solutions and coalition-building demonstrates a complementary approach, appealing to voters seeking measurable outcomes and practical governance.
As the March primary approaches, both campaigns are intensifying efforts to communicate their vision to voters. The race has become a defining moment for Texas Democrats, showcasing the tension between progressive energy and pragmatic strategy, as well as the broader challenge of competing effectively in statewide elections.
While polls show Talarico currently leading, the presence of a substantial undecided electorate means the outcome remains uncertain. Both candidates continue to engage voters through a combination of traditional campaigning, social media outreach, and policy-focused messaging. The final weeks of the primary will likely be critical in shaping the trajectory of the race.
The Supreme Court ruling adds a layer of complexity, reminding candidates and voters alike that institutional decisions can have far-reaching implications. Crockett’s critique of the ruling highlights ongoing concerns about fair representation, particularly for minority communities, and signals a broader dialogue about the role of judicial oversight in electoral processes.
In this competitive and high-stakes environment, Texas Democrats are facing a choice not only about leadership but also about the direction and priorities of their party. The results of the primary will influence the general election, shape the party’s messaging, and impact strategies for engaging with a changing electorate across the state.
As the primary approaches, both Crockett and Talarico are intensifying efforts to connect with voters across the state, utilizing a mix of traditional campaign methods and modern digital outreach. Town halls, community forums, and door-to-door canvassing are being paired with social media campaigns designed to engage younger voters and mobilize support in key urban centers. Crockett’s campaign emphasizes her track record in Congress and her commitment to progressive policies such as criminal justice reform, healthcare accessibility, and environmental protections. By appealing to activists and voters seeking bold change, she aims to solidify a loyal base of supporters who are passionate about her platform.
Talarico, meanwhile, is highlighting his ability to work across party lines and focus on pragmatic solutions. His campaign messaging underscores issues like improving public education, expanding affordable housing, and ensuring local communities have a voice in decision-making. By framing himself as a unifying figure who can bring practical improvements to Texans’ daily lives, Talarico hopes to attract not only the Democratic base but also moderate voters who may be disillusioned by partisan gridlock.
Political analysts note that fundraising and organizational infrastructure will play a decisive role in the outcome. Talarico’s substantial war chest provides opportunities for robust advertising campaigns, voter outreach, and strategic investments in key counties. Crockett’s campaign, while benefiting from a dedicated progressive network, faces the challenge of matching the scale and reach of her opponent’s operations.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court decision continues to shape the political environment. For Crockett, it reinforces her argument that minority communities need stronger representation, while Talarico seeks to maintain focus on policy solutions rather than legal disputes. Both campaigns must navigate the legal backdrop while keeping voters engaged and informed, balancing the urgency of the primary with broader discussions about the future of Texas politics.
With just weeks remaining before the March primary, Democrats across the state are watching closely, aware that the outcome will not only determine the Senate nominee but also influence the party’s strategic direction for the coming election cycle.