The Pulse of a Second Term: Analyzing President Trump’s Approval and the “Swift and Unrelenting” Start of 2026

The first month of a second presidential term is often characterized by a “honeymoon phase,” but for the administration of Donald J. Trump, January 2026 has been defined by a whirlwind of structural upheaval, economic pivots, and a historically polarized public response. As the nation grapples with the fallout of mass federal reorganizations and a burgeoning international trade dispute, the latest polling data paints a picture of a country deeply divided yet intensely engaged.

A Second Beginning: The “Swift and Unrelenting” Strategy

Upon taking the oath of office for the second time, President Trump signaled that his administration would not be characterized by a slow transition. Instead, he described the initial weeks as “swift and unrelenting.” This approach was immediately visible in the executive branch, where a series of mass firings aimed at “dismantling the deep state” sent shockwaves through the federal workforce.

For supporters, these actions represented a fulfillment of campaign promises to streamline government and reduce spending. For critics, the sudden loss of institutional knowledge raised concerns about the stability of essential services. This tension is the primary driver of the current approval ratings, which show a public split along ideological lines that have only hardened since the 2024 election.

The Approval Paradox: Stability Amidst Volatility

According to the latest Gallup tracking, President Trump’s approval rating has hovered around 46% during this opening month. While this may seem modest by historical standards, it is a significant increase from the 41% average seen during his first term.

Comparative Approval Metrics (First Month of Term)

Administration	Initial Approval Rating (Gallup)	Key Economic Context
Trump (2nd Term)	46%	High volatility, Tariff disputes
Biden (1st Term)	54%	COVID-19 Recovery stimulus
Trump (1st Term)	41%	Post-2016 Polarization

Interestingly, a Reuters/Ipsos poll corroborated this trend, placing his approval at 44%. The data suggests that while Trump remains a polarizing figure, his “base” has not only remained loyal but has expanded slightly among voters who prioritize decisive executive action over traditional decorum.

The Economic Engine: Tariffs and the Trade War of 2026

Perhaps the most significant policy lever pulled in the first 30 days was the imposition of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum. Designed to protect domestic industry and force a renegotiation of trade imbalances, the move has had immediate global consequences.

The International Response

Canada and the European Union were quick to respond, enacting billions of dollars in retaliatory tariffs. This has created a “tit-for-tat” economic environment that has caused significant fluctuations in the stock market.

• The “Egg Price” Factor: Domestically, consumers have felt the pinch of rising grocery costs. While the administration attributes these spikes to global supply chain issues and previous fiscal policies, the public’s patience is being tested.

• Public Opinion on Trade: A CNN/SSRS poll found that support for the tariff policy is notably lower than the President’s overall approval, with only 39% of Americans in favor and 61% expressing concern over potential price hikes.

Immigration and Social Reform: The Pillar of Support

Where the administration finds its strongest footing is in its immigration and border security policies. The “intensified border controls” and “immigration crackdowns” mentioned in the President’s address to Congress have resonated with a significant portion of the electorate.

The Reuters poll highlighted this specifically, showing 47% approval for his immigration stance. This issue, perhaps more than any other, serves as the bedrock of his second-term mandate. Additionally, the removal of diversity and inclusion (DEI) programs in public institutions has been framed by the White House as a “return to meritocracy,” a move that has further solidified support among conservative voters while drawing fierce condemnation from civil rights advocates.

Analysis: The Resilience of the “Trump Coalition”

The stability of these ratings, despite a “turbulent beginning,” suggests that the American public has become largely “picket-fenced” into their respective camps. The fluctuations in approval are no longer driven by single news cycles but by deep-seated beliefs about the direction of the country.

Key Demographic Shifts:

1. The Suburban Middle: These voters remain the most volatile, fluctuating based on the “pocketbook” impact of tariffs.

2. The Working Class: Support remains high here, bolstered by the promise of protected manufacturing jobs via steel tariffs.

3. The Youth Vote: Disapproval remains high in this bracket, particularly regarding government cuts and social policy changes.

Looking Ahead: The Midterm Shadow

As Vice President JD Vance maintains a narrow approval-to-disapproval margin (40.8% to 42.8%), the administration is already looking toward the 2026 midterm elections. The “swift and unrelenting” pace is intended to create “facts on the ground” that will be difficult for future administrations to reverse.

The question for the remainder of 2026 is whether the economic benefits of the “America First” trade policy will manifest quickly enough to offset the immediate pain of inflation and retaliatory tariffs. If the stock market stabilizes and domestic production ramps up, the President’s approval could break the 50% ceiling—a feat he rarely achieved in his first term. If not, the “turbulent beginning” may become the defining characteristic of his second four years.